Lukomsky and Belsky’s initial thoughts on the Londoners.
The stats company Opta assessed each team’s strength and predicted the calendar’s completion prior to the Premier League season. Chelsea had the easiest five rounds. Four weeks have already passed: Chelsea scored just four points and was ranked 12th overall at the end of the week. It seems unlikely that such a start could be deemed at least acceptable. Also noteworthy is the defeat to Nottingham; it was the first victory at the Bridge in 28 years.
There are many questions. Is it really that bad? Why does Chelsea play with three back? ¿The summer contracts are a failure, don’t they?
El Chelsea has unusually bad luck. Once more
The advanced metrics suggested that Graham Potter could find several configurations throughout the previous season, but there was an issue with implementation. xG predicted 13 more goals, and the Club lost by 8,5 points (the Arsenal predicted 11,5). Potter helped Chelsea record 1,27 points per game, matching the previous club record set in 1996.
The issue has not disappeared. In the first four rounds of the Premier League, Chelsea has already fallen short by four points in terms of xPTS (points expected, a metric based on xG in games), with 4.5 goals scored. Only the Everton has a greater deviation from the model xG for worse. Only Brentford remained without points in the top half of the table at the same time (xPTS adds two points).
Closely proximate statistics should be handled carefully. The third-place finish in xPoints does not make Chelsea the third Premier League team that only has bad luck. Due to the exhibition being divided into four rounds, the timing of the games and the calendar play a significant role (how many minutes an organization leads in the scoreboard and how many minutes it trails or uses the same scoreboard).
However, the discrepancy is too significant to be ignored. While the Chelsea are playing noticeably better than their position on the scoreboard, it is still difficult to determine in what capacity.
Third in incomplete passes (14), second in accurate passes, and first in possession (71%), the Chelsea. In terms of big scoring opportunities, which are those that are obvious when the ball should end up in the goal, Chelsea also holds the top spot with 14 in 4 games (just 3 were converted).
One cannot rely on a metric and determine an anomaly based on it. However, a number of statistical indicators regarding Chelsea stand out clearly. Clearly, there hasn’t been any luck up until now.
When watching sports, one can reach similar conclusions. In their match against West Ham, Chelsea missed a penalty kick with the score at 1:1; else, the outcome could have been completely different. Forest lost with a shooting percentage of 21:7 and a possession percentage of 76%. There were issues in these games (which will be discussed more), but the team easily could have scored at least four points instead of zero.
Everything about Pochettino’s tactics: how Chelsea plays with three defenders, how pressure works, and Sterling’s key role
What is Chelsea’s strategy then?
In the preseason, Pochettino played with a 4-2-3-1 formation. In possession, a lateral right (Reece James or Malo Gusteau) helped to build the attack, with Ben Chilwell playing somewhat higher but reversing position as a lateral right.
Everything was destroyed by Christopher Nkunku’s injury during a friendly match against the Borussia. Christo was the brains behind Chelsea’s attack; he knew when to play as the second quarterback and when it was best to fall and assist from a deeper position. Nicholas Jackson was also set free by Nkunku’s movement.
Pochettino didn’t have time to experiment because the injury occurred in the final preseason game. Continually played with four players behind him when defending, leaving three behind him for the ball.
Many people believed that Chelsea played with three often, much like Thomas Tuchel did.
It’s about interpreting the players’ positions. Levi Colville frequently plays as the center. It is more practical to classify it as a central defense. However, when defending and pressing, play on the left extreme.
Chilwell’s responsibilities undoubtedly include more offensive responsibilities than usual. More frequently enters the area and more frequently occupies the position on the extreme left. Pochettino is attempting to set up a temporary replacement for Nkunku in this manner. It doesn’t work very well: Chilwell frequently loses the fight during the attacking phase, which is unnecessary.
After the first round match against Liverpool, the Argentinean coach discussed the formation’s adaptability: “We’re fighting in a line of four defenders, right?
This is a three during the construction process. Today we moved from defense to attack via Disasi, Thiago Silva, and Levi Colville.
But if you look at the second phase, when we don’t have the ball, you’ll see a quartet with Disasi and Thiago as the centre players and Levi Colville and Reece James on the outside.
Our formation would probably be seen as 4-3-2-1 in some places if you had a drone and the ability to shoot from above; I’m unable to pinpoint the numbers specifically. I believe we are playing in two different phases. It’s a three-man defense in our possession, after which the ball moves to the center of the field. Without the ball, we have four on defense with two in the middle of the field. Trent Alexander-Arnold was more frequently found in the middle of the field, therefore the chilli moved closer to the center. Jackson jugo diez, whilst Carney [Chukwuemeka] jugo nueve.
Without the ball, the Chelsea formation frequently resembles a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3. El elemento constante aqu es el espejo y las posiciones igualmente altas de Sterling y Chilwell. El llenado de la zona central depende del episodio y de la posición del rival (como sealó Pochettino, tal vez incluso 4-3-2-1). Both play as the extremes: